Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Nebraska
Closing spread
NEB -23.5
✓ NEB W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 70 pts
Model before kickoff
OHIO 15–37 NEB
✓ NEB (94%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNEB -23.5
CloseNEB -23.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNEB -23.5
no move
CloseNEB -23.5
No change since the open
Total
Open47.5
no move
Close47.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NEB -23.5 · unchangedmodel NEB -17
model NEB -17
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 52.5
model 52.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (78 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenNEB -23.5
CloseNEB -23.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NEB as a 23.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: NEB won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 93%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.6 against an average line of 22.8; 51.4 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-21 | 23–19 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-20.5 | 52–7 | W | O52 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-25.5 | 31–0 | W | U50 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-26.5 | 40–17 | L | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-24 | 38–10 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-24.5 | 38–20 | L | O50 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-20 | 48–0 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation |
-21.5 | 38–20 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-22.5 | 38–21 | L | O52 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-22 | 34–20 | L | O46.5 |
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CINHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Ohio have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 563 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 OHIO | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| NEB | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% | 8-2 80% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NEB +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
92° · 5 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
OHIO1st game
NEB1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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