Bowling Green @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Nebraska

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

0-1 · Power #129

final

Final

Nebraska

1-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -30.5

✓ NEB W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 9–39 NEB

✓ NEB (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -25.5

CloseNEB -30.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -25.5

5 → NEB

CloseNEB -30.5

5 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -25.5 · closed NEB -30.5 · moved 5 toward NEBmodel NEB -29

model NEB -29

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–31.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 48% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (192 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -25.5

CloseNEB -30.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 30.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 56–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 31.5 against an average line of 28.6; 47.3 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs BALL 2025 · Week 13 · close	-29.5	38–9	L	O45.5
Close	OSU vs MSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-32	38–3	W	U48.25
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Close	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Close	USF vs RICE 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-28.5	52–3	W	U57.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Loose	JMU vs TROY 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar total & rest	-24.5	31–14	L	U47.5
Loose	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
NEB W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU U	0-1	0%	0-1
NEB O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 639 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
NEB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−12.7 →−14.0▼ 1.3#125

NEB+6.6 →+9.5▲ 2.9#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BGSU

Longer bar = better

NEB

#107

Offense

NEB better ▶

#39

#92

Defense

NEB better ▶

#73

−1.0 #104

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+1.0 #33

67 plays #75

Pace

NEB faster ▶

74 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	BGSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #118	21.0 #89	NEB
Yards / play	5.46 #92	4.66 #65	NEB
PPA / play	−0.10 #121	+0.05 #78	NEB
Success rate	39% #96	35% #58	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #31	20.0 #85	NEB
Yards / play	7.07 #44	8.14 #129	NEB
PPA / play	+0.46 #32	+0.04 #74	NEB
Success rate	51% #47	39% #78	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.