Utah State @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Washington

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah State

0-1 · Power #95

final

Final

Washington

1-0 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -28.5

✓ USU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 13–42 WASH

✓ WASH (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -24.5

CloseWASH -28.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -24.5

4 → WASH

CloseWASH -28.5

4 pts toward Washington

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -24.5 · closed WASH -28.5 · moved 4 toward WASHmodel WASH -28

model WASH -28

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (85 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWASH -24.5

CloseWASH -28.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 28.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 16–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 26.5; 54.6 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LOU vs BC 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-25.5	38–24	L	O54.5
Close	TENN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	45–14	W	P59
Close	ODU vs GAST 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	27–10	L	U58.5
Loose	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Loose	USF vs RICE 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-28.5	52–3	W	U57.5
Loose	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-27	48–24	L	O57.25
Loose	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Loose	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Loose	UK vs EMU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.5	48–23	L	O49.5
Loose	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU L	0-1	0%	—	—
WASH L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU U	0-1	0%	0-1
WASH U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
WASH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.5 →−8.0▼ 1.5#93

WASH+13.7 →+14.6▲ 0.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USU

Longer bar = better

WASH

#103

Offense

WASH better ▶

#80

#69

Defense

WASH better ▶

#45

−4.0 #137

Turnovers

WASH better ▶

+3.0 #7

88 plays #4

Pace

◀ USU faster

64 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	USU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #104	10.0 #41	WASH
Yards / play	4.63 #112	4.32 #54	WASH
PPA / play	−0.06 #116	−0.17 #38	WASH
Success rate	43% #80	32% #47	WASH

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #87	29.0 #106	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #65	3.83 #39	USU
PPA / play	+0.05 #99	+0.03 #73	USU
Success rate	47% #68	35% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.