Sun, Sep 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Washington
Closing spread
WASH -23.5
✓ WSU W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 34 pts
Model before kickoff
WSU 13–35 WASH
✓ WASH (94%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWASH -21.5
CloseWASH -23.5
Total50.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWASH -21.5
2 → WASH
CloseWASH -23.5
2 pts toward Washington
Total
Open50.5
▲ 1
Close51.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WASH -21.5 · closed WASH -23.5 · moved 2 toward WASHmodel WASH -17
model WASH -17
Opened 50.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 1 upmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 54% (85 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (289 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWASH -21.5
CloseWASH -23.5
Total50.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WASH as a 23.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: WASH won 24–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 93%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.1 against an average line of 22.8; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-22.5 | 38–21 | L | O52 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-21 | 17–12 | L | U53 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-21 | 58–7 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-24 | 38–10 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-22.5 | 38–9 | W | U54 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-23.5 | 42–24 | L | O58.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-24 | 40–14 | W | U58 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total |
-24.5 | 48–9 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-25.5 | 38–24 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total |
-19.5 | 21–7 | L | U48.5 |
CSU
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PITT
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ORE
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TA&M
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TTU
UCF
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BC
PSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Washington ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Washington
2 pts (WASH -21.5 → WASH -23.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Washington State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WSU | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% | 2-8 20% |
| WASH | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 3 since 2023
WSU 32–70 WASH (4 tied)
WASH leads · 106 games since 1917 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 2025 | Washington 59 @ Washington State 24 | WASH -20.5 | WASH W |
| Sep 14 2024 | Washington State 24 @ Washington 19 | — | — |
| Nov 25 2023 | Washington State 21 @ Washington 24 | WASH -15.5 | WSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WASH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
67° · 5 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WSU1st game
WASH1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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