Sun, Sep 6, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
ND -21
✓ ND W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 54 pts
Model before kickoff
WIS 12–34 ND
✓ ND (94%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenND -20.5
CloseND -21
Total47.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -20.5
0.5 → ND
CloseND -21
0.5 pts toward Notre Dame
Total
Open47.5
▼ 2
Close45.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -20.5 · closed ND -21 · moved 0.5 toward NDmodel ND -24
model ND -24
Opened 47.5 · closed 45.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenND -20.5
CloseND -21
Total47.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 5 games most like 
ND as a 21-point neutral-site favorite against WIS, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: ND won 41–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 5 similar games. 54 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 5.
Favorite won
5 of 5100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
5 of 5100%
Above normal · usually 45%
Went over
3 of 560%
Normal range · usually 47%
Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 33.8 against an average line of 17.4; 54.2 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 5 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2024 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings |
-17 | 52–20 | W | O50.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-20.5 | 42–3 | W | U50.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 14 · loose |
-21 | 26–0 | W | U35.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 13 · loose |
-14.5 | 49–14 | W | O44.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 9 · loose |
-14 | 51–14 | W | O50.5 |
MISS
DUKE
NAVY
MICH
IOWA
ARMYHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
47.5 → 45.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Wisconsin have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 471 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WIS | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 1-9 10% |
| ND | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
69° · 4 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WIS1st game
ND1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Wisconsinvs WIU →
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FRES @ 
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OHIO @ 
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BALL @ 
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BOIS @ 
ORE
MRSH @ 
PSU