Louisville vs Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sun, Sep 6, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff87°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

0-0 · Power #23

final

Final

Ole Miss

0-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -6.5

✓ LOU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 24–32 MISS

✓ MISS (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -7

CloseMISS -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -7

0.5 → LOU

CloseMISS -6.5

0.5 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -7 · closed MISS -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward LOUmodel MISS -10.5

model MISS -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 36% (44 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 68% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -7

CloseMISS -6.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against LOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 41–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.6 against an average line of 5.6; 49.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs FLA 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread	-7	24–20	L	U50.5
Close	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-7.25	44–41	L	O52
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5
Close	SC vs VT 2025 · Week 1 · close · similar spread	-7.5	24–11	W	U51.5
Close	LSU vs FSU 2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–45	L	O56.5
Close	USC vs TCU 2025 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	O56.5
Close	BYU vs GT 2025 · Postseason · close	-3.5	25–21	W	U55
Close	SC vs ILL 2024 · Postseason · close	-9.5	17–21	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found