Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Alabama
Closing spread
ALA -28.5
✓ ALA W
Total
52.5
▲ Over · 58 pts
Model before kickoff
ECU 12–40 ALA
✓ ALA (98%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenALA -25.5
CloseALA -28.5
Total54.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenALA -25.5
3 → ALA
CloseALA -28.5
3 pts toward Alabama
Total
Open54.5
▼ 2
Close52.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ALA -25.5 · closed ALA -28.5 · moved 3 toward ALAmodel ALA -23
model ALA -23
Opened 54.5 · closed 52.5 · moved 2 downmodel 52
model 52
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 56% (75 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (267 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenALA -25.5
CloseALA -28.5
Total54.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ALA as a 28.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.
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This game: ALA won 48–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 9 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 97%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 55%
Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 33.4 against an average line of 27; 57.8 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 9 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-27.5 | 56–6 | W | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation |
-26.5 | 24–14 | L | U54 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-27.5 | 52–10 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-28.5 | 69–3 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings |
-26 | 44–7 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-25.5 | 38–24 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-25 | 48–14 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total |
-29 | 49–14 | W | O56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 8 · close |
-26.5 | 38–13 | L | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & total |
-28 | 38–17 | L | O54 |
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BUFFHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Alabama ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Alabama
3 pts (ALA -25.5 → ALA -28.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
54.5 → 52.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
East Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 650 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ECU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ALA | 7-3 70% | 4-5-1 44% | 3-7 30% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ALA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
92° · 1 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ECU1st game
ALA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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