Thu, Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Illinois
Closing spread
ILL -25.5
✓ UAB W
Total
53.5
▲ Over · 65 pts
Model before kickoff
UAB 16–41 ILL
✓ ILL (96%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenILL -27.5
CloseILL -25.5
Total56.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -27.5
2 → UAB
CloseILL -25.5
2 pts toward UAB
Total
Open56.5
▼ 3
Close53.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -27.5 · closed ILL -25.5 · moved 2 toward UABmodel ILL -24
model ILL -24
Opened 56.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 3 downmodel 56.5
model 56.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 48% (69 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (216 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenILL -27.5
CloseILL -25.5
Total56.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ILL as a 25.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: ILL won 42–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 94%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.6 against an average line of 24.7; 52.6 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-25.5 | 31–0 | W | U50 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-27.5 | 38–0 | W | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-25.5 | 45–19 | W | O58.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-26.5 | 40–17 | L | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-24.5 | 38–20 | L | O50 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-24.5 | 38–21 | L | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-23.5 | 34–16 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-21.5 | 45–14 | W | O54 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-24.5 | 45–24 | L | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation |
-23.5 | 27–14 | L | U53.5 |
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ODUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight UAB ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward UAB
2 pts (ILL -27.5 → ILL -25.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
56.5 → 53.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
UAB have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 607 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UAB | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| ILL | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ILL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
84° · 6 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UAB1st game
ILL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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