Sat, Aug 29, 2026, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at USC
Closing spread
USC -37.5
✓ SJSU W
Total
61.5
▲ Over · 68 pts
Model before kickoff
SJSU 12–49 USC
✓ USC (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUSC -35.5
CloseUSC -37.5
Total57.5 → 61.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -35.5
2 → USC
CloseUSC -37.5
2 pts toward USC
Total
Open57.5
▲ 4
Close61.5
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -35.5 · closed USC -37.5 · moved 2 toward USCmodel USC -33.5
model USC -33.5
Opened 57.5 · closed 61.5 · moved 4 upmodel 61
model 61
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 36.5–38.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 56% (52 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (262 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUSC -35.5
CloseUSC -37.5
Total57.5 → 61.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
USC as a 37.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: USC won 42–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 61.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 54%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 56%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 37.1 against an average line of 36.4; 58.3 points a game (usually 56). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & situation |
-35 | 52–0 | W | U62.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread |
-35.5 | 56–7 | W | O56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-39 | 56–24 | L | O68.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-34 | 41–7 | P | U58.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-34.5 | 44–22 | L | O57.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread |
-35.5 | 59–3 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-35.25 | 37–10 | L | U59 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-35 | 52–13 | W | U68.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation |
-39 | 49–14 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-40.75 | 31–6 | L | U53.5 |
TEX
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ORE
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BGSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight USC ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward USC
2 pts (USC -35.5 → USC -37.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 4
57.5 → 61.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
San José State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 255 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 SJSU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| USC | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
SJSU 0–1 USC
USC leads · 1 game since 2023 · USC has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26 2023 | San José State 28 @ USC 56 | USC -30.5 | SJSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
USC +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 4 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
SJSU1st game
USC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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