Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Oregon
Closing spread
ORE -24.5
✓ BOIS W
Total
53.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
BOIS 14–39 ORE
✓ ORE (96%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenORE -24.5
CloseORE -24.5
Total52.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenORE -24.5
no move
CloseORE -24.5
No change since the open
Total
Open52.5
▲ 1
Close53.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ORE -24.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -29
model ORE -29
Opened 52.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 1 upmodel 53.5 matches the line
model 53.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 53% (80 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenORE -24.5
CloseORE -24.5
Total52.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ORE as a 24.5-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: ORE won 34–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 94%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.8 against an average line of 24.4; 51 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-25 | 21–17 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-22.5 | 31–10 | L | U53 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-26.5 | 24–14 | L | U54 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-24 | 39–18 | L | U58 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-27.5 | 37–3 | W | U51.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-24 | 39–17 | L | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread |
-22.5 | 38–9 | W | U54 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread |
-24.5 | 48–9 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation |
-24.5 | 56–30 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-22.5 | 36–14 | L | U55 |
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MIAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Boise State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 620 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 BOIS | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| ORE | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
BOIS 0–1 ORE
ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 2024 | Boise State 34 @ Oregon 37 | ORE -17.5 | BOIS W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ORE +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 3 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BOIS1st game
ORE1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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ORST @ 
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TXST @ 
TEX