Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Texas
Closing spread
TEX -29.5
✓ TEX W
Total
61.5
▲ Over · 66 pts
Model before kickoff
TXST 15–44 TEX
✓ TEX (98%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEX -30.5
CloseTEX -29.5
Total59.5 → 61.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -30.5
1 → TXST
CloseTEX -29.5
1 pt toward Texas State
Total
Open59.5
▲ 2
Close61.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -30.5 · closed TEX -29.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TEX -24
model TEX -24
Opened 59.5 · closed 61.5 · moved 2 upmodel 59
model 59
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 28.5–30.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 54% (65 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (328 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEX -30.5
CloseTEX -29.5
Total59.5 → 61.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TEX as a 29.5-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: TEX won 59–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 61.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 96%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 33.7 against an average line of 29.1; 59.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-26.5 | 31–15 | L | U56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-29.5 | 63–10 | W | O64.75 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total |
-26 | 26–14 | L | U63.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-30.5 | 56–28 | L | O64.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-30.25 | 27–16 | L | U51.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-34 | 43–10 | L | U66.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total |
-29.5 | 48–0 | W | U63 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-31 | 42–16 | L | U64.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total |
-25.5 | 63–19 | W | O61.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread |
-28.5 | 66–0 | W | O56.5 |
AUB
USA
OSU
WKU
MISS
MSST
USC
SJSU
CLEM
TROY
WASH
TLSA
USU
ALA
USF
ORE
CAL
IU
PURHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 2
59.5 → 61.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Texas State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 261 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TXST | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| TEX | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TEX +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
96° · 5 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TXST1st game
TEX1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
UTEP @ 
OU
FRES @ 
ECU @ 
ORST @ 
HOU
KENT @ 
SC
BOIS @ 
BAY vs 
WYO @ 
CSU
MOST @ 
TA&M
ULM @