Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Mississippi State
Closing spread
MSST -28.5
✓ MSST W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 75 pts
Model before kickoff
ULM 13–41 MSST
✓ MSST (98%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMSST -28.5
CloseMSST -28.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSST -28.5
no move
CloseMSST -28.5
No change since the open
Total
Open54.5
no move
Close54.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSST -28.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -27.5
model MSST -27.5
Opened 54.5 · unchangedmodel 53.5
model 53.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 57% (81 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMSST -28.5
CloseMSST -28.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MSST as a 28.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: MSST won 62–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 97%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 55%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28.5 against an average line of 27.7; 58.1 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-28 | 54–26 | P | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-27.5 | 38–0 | W | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-28.5 | 52–14 | W | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation |
-27.5 | 70–21 | W | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-27.5 | 58–3 | W | O56.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total |
-28 | 48–22 | L | O56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-26.75 | 31–42 | L | O58.75 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-31 | 27–0 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-23.5 | 28–10 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-28.5 | 27–10 | L | U58.5 |
USF
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IU
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BAY
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LIB
UTEP
ODUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
UL Monroe have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 617 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ULM | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| MSST | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MSST +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 8 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ULM1st game
MSST1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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MRSH @ 
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AUB
MOST @ 
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ARST @ 
MEM