Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan
Closing spread
MICH -27.5
✓ WMU W
Total
50.5
▼ Under · 25 pts
Model before kickoff
WMU 10–37 MICH
✓ MICH (97%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -26.5
CloseMICH -27.5
Total47.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -26.5
1 → MICH
CloseMICH -27.5
1 pt toward Michigan
Total
Open47.5
▲ 3
Close50.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -26.5 · closed MICH -27.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -24
model MICH -24
Opened 47.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 3 upmodel 47
model 47
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 59% (79 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (288 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -26.5
CloseMICH -27.5
Total47.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MICH as a 27.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: MICH won 13–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 96%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 55%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 27.4; 52.8 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-29.5 | 27–11 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-28.5 | 52–14 | W | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-24.5 | 26–9 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-26.5 | 31–15 | L | U56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-25 | 48–14 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-27.5 | 28–3 | L | U44 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-31 | 66–13 | W | O54 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-26.75 | 31–42 | L | O58.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-24.5 | 48–7 | W | U56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-30.25 | 27–16 | L | U51.5 |
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TROYHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 3
47.5 → 50.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Western Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WMU | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
| MICH | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MICH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 5 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WMU1st game
MICH1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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