Sam Houston @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Troy

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Sam Houston

0-0 · Power #124

final

Final

Troy

0-0 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -15.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 17–33 TROY

✓ TROY (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -17.5

CloseTROY -15.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -17.5

2 → SHSU

CloseTROY -15.5

2 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -17.5 · closed TROY -15.5 · moved 2 toward SHSUmodel TROY -15.5 matches the line

model TROY -15.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 48% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (220 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -17.5

CloseTROY -15.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 15.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 16.4; 56.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs MASS 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.5	38–23	L	O51
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-15	37–10	W	U52
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	CMU vs MASS 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings	-16.5	38–13	W	O46.5
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	NAVY vs CLT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-16.5	51–17	W	O57.5
Close	USA vs CCU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-14.5	20–38	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found