Florida International @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at South Florida

Weather at kickoff88°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida International

0-0 · Power #105

final

Final

South Florida

0-0 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -14.5

✓ FIU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 21–37 USF

✓ USF (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -12.5

CloseUSF -14.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -12.5

2 → USF

CloseUSF -14.5

2 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -12.5 · closed USF -14.5 · moved 2 toward USFmodel USF -22.5

model USF -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (129 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (277 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -12.5

CloseUSF -14.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 14.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 19–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 14.8; 52.8 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs FRES 2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	31–7	W	U50.5
Very close	KSU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-16.75	21–24	L	U48.5
Very close	TXST vs EMU 2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	52–27	W	O56.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & situation	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Very close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	ARIZ vs HAW 2025 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	40–6	W	U55.5
Close	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Close	UCLA vs UNM 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-15.5	10–35	L	U52.5
Close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-15	24–21	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found