Tulsa @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Sam Houston

Weather at kickoff94°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-0 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-1 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

TLSA -12.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 31–20 SHSU

✓ TLSA (79%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTLSA -10.5

CloseTLSA -12.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTLSA -10.5

2 → TLSA

CloseTLSA -12.5

2 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TLSA -10.5 · closed TLSA -12.5 · moved 2 toward TLSAmodel TLSA -6

model TLSA -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 42% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (302 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTLSA -10.5

CloseTLSA -12.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TLSA as a 12.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 11; 56.1 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Close	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Loose	KENN @ NMSU 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-11.5	24–21	L	U52.5
Loose	UNLV @ UNM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	56–14	W	O58
Loose	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	SDSU @ HAW 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	6–38	L	U48
Loose	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Loose	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Loose	CONN @ UAB 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–23	W	P54
Loose	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-10	32–31	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA W	1-0	100%	—	—
SHSU W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: TLSA away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA U	0-1	0%	1-0
SHSU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SHSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−10.2 →−11.0▼ 0.8#113

SHSU−20.4 →−18.8▲ 1.6#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TLSA

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#77

Offense

Even

#88

#48

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#84

+3.0 #6

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−1.0 #114

57 plays #113

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

70 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #85	24.0 #100	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #62	5.18 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #74	+0.16 #104	TLSA
Success rate	41% #87	33% #53	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: TLSA defense

	SHSU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #98	10.0 #39	TLSA
Yards / play	5.33 #95	4.28 #53	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	−0.20 #36	TLSA
Success rate	47% #66	36% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.