Rice @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff87°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Rice

1-0 · Power #121

final

Final

Notre Dame

1-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -44.5

✓ ND W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 2–47 ND

✓ ND (100%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -44.5

CloseND -44.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -44.5

no move

CloseND -44.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -44.5 · unchangedmodel ND -45.5

model ND -45.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 42.5–46.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 54% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -44.5

CloseND -44.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like ND as a 44.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 52–0; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 52 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 40%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 30.4 against an average line of 40.7; 40.8 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TEX vs ULM 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-43.5	51–3	W	O53.5
Loose	MICH vs UNLV 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-38	35–7	L	U57.5
Loose	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	PSU vs FIU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-41.75	34–0	L	U53.5
Loose	TEX vs UTEP 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-39.5	27–10	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE W	1-0	100%	—	—
ND W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE U	0-1	0%	1-0
ND O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 3 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ND	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−14.2 →−13.5▲ 0.7#123

ND+24.9 →+24.6▼ 0.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

RICE

Longer bar = better

#64

Offense

Even

#62

#30

Defense

◀ RICE better

#52

+1.0 #45

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+2.0 #12

80 plays #15

Pace

◀ RICE faster

61 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #73	13.0 #48	ND
Yards / play	6.16 #69	4.66 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #73	−0.10 #48	ND
Success rate	53% #40	32% #48	Even

When ND has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	ND off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #46	3.0 #11	RICE
Yards / play	5.74 #82	4.24 #52	RICE
PPA / play	+0.35 #48	−0.32 #19	RICE
Success rate	46% #73	29% #37	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.