South Alabama @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Tulane

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-0 · Power #101

final

Final

Tulane

0-1 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -9.5

✓ USA W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 19–29 TULN

✓ TULN (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTULN -10

CloseTULN -9.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -10

0.5 → USA

CloseTULN -9.5

0.5 pts toward South Alabama

Total

Open55.5

▼ 7

Close48.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -10 · closed TULN -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward USAmodel TULN -14.5

model TULN -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (159 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTULN -10

CloseTULN -9.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like TULN as a 9.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 28–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 7 similar games. 52 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 9.5; 48.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs ARMY 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	29–37	L	O41.75
Loose	UTSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	34–14	W	U54.25
Loose	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Loose	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5
Loose	WSU vs LT 2025 · Week 12 · loose	-10	28–3	W	U43.5
Loose	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Loose	WKU vs NMSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-5	29–38	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA W	1-0	100%	—	—
TULN L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA U	0-1	0%	1-0
TULN U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 639 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TULN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USA 0–2 TULN TULN leads · 2 games since 2023 · TULN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Tulane 33 @ South Alabama 31	TULN -13.5	USA W
Sep 2 2023	South Alabama 17 @ Tulane 37	TULN -7	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−10.3▼ 0.7#110

TULN+2.5 →+0.6▼ 1.9#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USA

Longer bar = better

TULN

#89

Offense

◀ USA better

#124

#70

Defense

Even

#58

+2.0 #24

Turnovers

◀ USA better

0.0 #83

86 plays #7

Pace

◀ USA faster

56 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	USA off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #52	17.0 #77	USA
Yards / play	4.59 #114	4.95 #72	TULN
PPA / play	+0.06 #93	−0.13 #45	TULN
Success rate	39% #97	29% #39	TULN

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	TULN off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	3.0 #132	14.0 #64	USA
Yards / play	4.61 #113	6.24 #106	Even
PPA / play	−0.13 #126	−0.14 #40	USA
Success rate	31% #125	38% #68	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.