Michigan State @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

2-0 · Power #69

final

Final

Notre Dame

2-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -28.5

✓ MSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 13–41 ND

✓ ND (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -29.5

CloseND -28.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -29.5

1 → MSU

CloseND -28.5

1 pt toward Michigan State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -29.5 · closed ND -28.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel ND -26.5

model ND -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -29.5

CloseND -28.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 28.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 27–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31 against an average line of 26.3; 49.8 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & rest	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Close	OSU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-28.5	37–9	L	U49.5
Close	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · close	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Loose	UGA vs SC 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-26.5	24–14	L	U54
Loose	OSU vs MINN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-23.5	42–3	W	O42.5
Loose	TTU vs UCF 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-24.5	48–9	W	O48.5
Loose	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Loose	OSU vs RUTG 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-28.5	42–9	W	U54.5
Loose	MIZ vs UL 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	52–10	W	O47.5
Loose	MICH vs RUTG 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24	31–7	P	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU PW	1-0-1	100%	—	—
ND WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OU	1-1	50%	2-0
ND OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	7-2-1 78%	5-5 50%
ND	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MSU 28–45 ND (1 tied) ND leads · 74 games since 1899 · ND has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.6 →+3.3▲ 2.7#55

ND+24.9 →+25.4▲ 0.5#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MSU

Longer bar = better

#75

Offense

ND better ▶

#24

#64

Defense

ND better ▶

+0.5 #46

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+3.0 #3

77 plays #13

Pace

◀ MSU faster

63 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	MSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #61	6.5 #5	ND
Yards / play	5.64 #90	3.85 #17	ND
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	−0.29 #5	ND
Success rate	45% #62	24% #6	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #21	13.5 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.57 #47	5.29 #79	ND
PPA / play	+0.46 #11	+0.08 #84	ND
Success rate	54% #16	37% #54	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	8.5	8.0	16.5	7.0	9.0	16.0
ND allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

ND scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	15.5	12.0	27.5	12.0	7.0	19.0
MSU allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.