LSU @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

LSU

2-0 · Power #6

final

Final

Ole Miss

2-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -3

✓ MISS W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 30–28 MISS

✗ LSU (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -1.5

CloseLSU -3

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -1.5

4.5 → LSU

CloseLSU -3

4.5 pts toward LSU

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -1.5 · closed LSU -3 · moved 4.5 toward LSUmodel LSU -1.5

model LSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (207 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (201 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -1.5

CloseLSU -3

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 3-point road favorite at MISS, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 32–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points stayed under 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.9; 62.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ LSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-4	26–29	L	U64.5
Loose	OSU @ ORE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–32	L	O54.5
Loose	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Loose	USC @ ILL 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–34	L	O62.5
Loose	UTAH @ OKST 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	22–19	W	U53.5
Loose	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2	31–24	W	P55
Loose	TENN @ OU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	25–15	W	U57
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Loose	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-7	49–35	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
MISS LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; MISS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OO	2-0	100%	2-0
MISS OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MISS	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LSU 1–2 MISS MISS leads · 3 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	LSU 19 @ Ole Miss 24	MISS -3.5	MISS W
Oct 12 2024	Ole Miss 26 @ LSU 29	MISS -3.5	LSU W
Sep 30 2023	LSU 49 @ Ole Miss 55	LSU -3	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+12.7 →+20.2▲ 7.5#9

MISS+18.8 →+16.2▼ 2.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LSU

Longer bar = better

MISS

#47

Offense

Even

#34

Defense

◀ LSU better

#103

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #118

89 plays #2

Pace

◀ LSU faster

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #19	23.5 #83	LSU
Yards / play	6.58 #46	6.13 #117	LSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.16 #113	LSU
Success rate	47% #50	42% #97	LSU

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	MISS off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #35	12.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.68 #42	2.76 #3	LSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #39	−0.60 #1	LSU
Success rate	53% #18	12% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	13.5	7.0	20.5	13.5	14.0	27.5
MISS allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	12.0	8.5	20.5

MISS scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	3.5	15.0	18.5	7.0	15.5	22.5
LSU allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	0.0	7.0	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.