Texas A&M @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

2-1 · Power #24

final

Final

LSU

2-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -8.5

✓ LSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 22–30 LSU

✓ LSU (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -3

CloseLSU -8.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -3

5.5 → LSU

CloseLSU -8.5

5.5 pts toward LSU

Total

Open57.5

▼ 5

Close52.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -3 · closed LSU -8.5 · moved 5.5 toward LSUmodel LSU -4.5

model LSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (182 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -3

CloseLSU -8.5

Total57.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as an 8.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LSU won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 8.6; 44.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs FLA 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	26–7	W	U51.5
Close	WASH vs UTAH 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–28	L	O49
Close	UTAH vs ASU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	42–10	W	O44.5
Loose	ALA vs LSU 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-10	20–9	W	U49.5
Loose	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	27–10	W	U51
Loose	ISU vs ASU 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	19–24	L	U48.5
Loose	OU vs AUB 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	24–17	W	U47.5
Loose	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 11 · loose	-13.5	29–7	W	U50.25
Loose	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5	24–14	W	U51
Loose	IU vs ILL 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	63–10	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M WWL	2-1	67%	—	—
LSU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
LSU OOU	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TA&M 24–37 LSU (3 tied) LSU leads · 64 games since 1906 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Texas A&M 49 @ LSU 25	TA&M -1.5	TA&M W
Oct 26 2024	LSU 23 @ Texas A&M 38	TA&M -1.5	TA&M W
Nov 25 2023	Texas A&M 30 @ LSU 42	LSU -13	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+19.7 →+17.5▼ 2.2#10

LSU+12.7 →+19.4▲ 6.7#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TA&M

Longer bar = better

LSU

#77

Offense

LSU better ▶

#54

#55

Defense

LSU better ▶

#21

+0.7 #47

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−0.3 #104

76 plays #9

Pace

Even

83 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	TA&M off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #32	18.7 #51	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #116	4.03 #14	LSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.13 #16	LSU
Success rate	45% #60	28% #4	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #30	17.0 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #73	5.38 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #69	−0.04 #32	TA&M
Success rate	47% #45	39% #66	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.3 #87	9.0 #75	14.3 #87	7.0 #56	18.3 #2	25.3 #3
LSU allowed	4.3 #73	7.0 #63	11.3 #66	0.0 #1	7.3 #103	7.3 #32

LSU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.0 #39	7.0 #97	16.0 #77	13.7 #3	10.3 #22	24.0 #4
TA&M allowed	2.3 #27	3.3 #22	5.7 #13	10.3 #131	1.0 #4	11.3 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.