Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-2 · Power #57

final

Final

Texas A&M

2-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -13.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 20–33 TA&M

✓ TA&M (84%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -14.5

CloseTA&M -13.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -14.5

1 → ARK

CloseTA&M -13.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -14.5 · closed TA&M -13.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel TA&M -16

model TA&M -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (151 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (368 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -14.5

CloseTA&M -13.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 13.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TA&M won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.2 against an average line of 14.4; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs VT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	35–20	W	U55.5
Very close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Very close	WASH vs PUR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	49–13	W	O51.5
Very close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Very close	KSU vs COLO 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	24–14	L	U49.5
Close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	40–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2
TA&M WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2
TA&M UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
TA&M	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ARK 42–38 TA&M (3 tied) ARK leads · 83 games since 1903 · TA&M has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Texas A&M 45 @ Arkansas 42	TA&M -8.5	ARK W
Sep 28 2024	Arkansas 17 @ Texas A&M 21	TA&M -7.5	ARK W
Sep 30 2023	Texas A&M 34 @ Arkansas 22	TA&M -6.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+7.3 →+2.2▼ 5.1#59

TA&M+19.7 →+14.4▼ 5.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARK

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#104

Offense

Even

#97

#100

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#82

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+0.3 #63

75 plays #9

Pace

Even

72 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	ARK off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #106	21.5 #58	TA&M
Yards / play	4.85 #124	6.05 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.08 #76	TA&M
Success rate	43% #78	41% #81	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #68	27.0 #102	TA&M
Yards / play	4.78 #129	5.80 #99	ARK
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.19 #111	Even
Success rate	43% #79	42% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	5.0 #93	4.0 #130	9.0 #123	3.5 #116	10.5 #18	14.0 #67
TA&M allowed	3.5 #44	4.3 #24	7.8 #21	13.0 #136	0.8 #1	13.8 #105

TA&M scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	4.0 #106	7.5 #92	11.5 #105	6.0 #69	13.8 #4	19.8 #14
ARK allowed	3.5 #44	9.0 #98	12.5 #83	7.5 #111	7.0 #91	14.5 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.