UTSA @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

3-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Rice

1-3 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

UTSA -11.5

✓ RICE W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 34–22 RICE

✓ UTSA (80%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -12.5

CloseUTSA -11.5

Total52.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -12.5

1 → RICE

CloseUTSA -11.5

1 pt toward Rice

Total

Open52.5

▲ 4

Close56.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -12.5 · closed UTSA -11.5 · moved 1 toward RICEmodel UTSA -14

model UTSA -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 51% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (368 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -12.5

CloseUTSA -11.5

Total52.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as an 11.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 16–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 11.7; 55.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Close	OHIO @ EMU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-12	28–21	L	U60.5
Close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5
Close	WSU @ ORST 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	38–41	L	O56.5
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Close	ODU @ ULM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.5	31–6	W	U55.5
Close	ORST @ UTEP 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	33–7	W	U56.5
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	14–20	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1
RICE WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	1-2

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
RICE UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
RICE	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UTSA 2–1 RICE UTSA leads · 3 games since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Rice 13 @ UTSA 61	UTSA -9.5	UTSA W
Oct 12 2024	UTSA 27 @ Rice 29	UTSA -3.5	RICE W
Nov 11 2023	Rice 14 @ UTSA 34	UTSA -14	UTSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.4 →+0.9▲ 0.5#63

RICE−14.2 →−14.0▲ 0.2#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UTSA

Longer bar = better

RICE

#45

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#94

#93

Defense

Even

#106

+1.3 #19

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−1.0 #123

63 plays #103

Pace

Even

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #45	30.3 #116	UTSA
Yards / play	6.41 #48	5.97 #107	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.24 #43	+0.16 #100	UTSA
Success rate	47% #44	43% #102	UTSA

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #126	29.3 #113	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #92	5.60 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.07 #74	UTSA
Success rate	45% #54	43% #96	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	9.5 #29	9.5 #68	19.0 #44	5.0 #95	11.3 #10	16.3 #37
RICE allowed	7.8 #119	10.5 #121	18.3 #124	5.0 #76	7.0 #91	12.0 #89

RICE scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.5 #110	6.8 #106	10.3 #111	1.8 #132	7.0 #74	8.8 #121
UTSA allowed	6.0 #101	10.0 #111	16.0 #112	5.8 #85	7.5 #107	13.3 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.