Temple @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Temple

1-3 · Power #104

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

4-0 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

USF -5.5

✓ TEM W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

TEM 24–30 USF

✗ USF (68%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -6.5

CloseUSF -5.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -6.5

1 → TEM

CloseUSF -5.5

1 pt toward Temple

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -6.5 · closed USF -5.5 · moved 1 toward TEMmodel USF -10.5

model USF -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (210 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (370 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -6.5

CloseUSF -5.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 5.5-point home favorite against TEM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TEM won 17–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 50.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 5.6; 65.3 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	ARMY vs UTSA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	29–24	L	P53
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	51–10	W	O52
Very close	TOL vs TEM 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	49–48	L	O48.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	45–13	W	O46.5
Very close	UVA vs WAKE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	9–16	L	U48.5
Very close	TXST vs TROY 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	41–48	L	O53.5
Very close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEM WWWP	3-0-1	100%	1-0	2-0-1
USF LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: TEM away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEM OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
USF UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEM	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEM 0–1 USF USF leads · 1 game since 2023 · USF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Temple 23 @ South Florida 27	USF -7	TEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEM−7.3 →−7.0▲ 0.3#97

USF+8.1 →+0.4▼ 7.7#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TEM

Longer bar = better

USF

#59

Offense

Even

#54

#114

Defense

USF better ▶

#49

+0.3 #59

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #48

60 plays #120

Pace

Even

58 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEM has the ball

Even matchup

	TEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #84	14.0 #21	USF
Yards / play	6.40 #49	5.03 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #38	−0.01 #37	Even
Success rate	44% #66	42% #84	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	TEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #76	27.8 #106	USF
Yards / play	6.10 #68	5.97 #109	USF
PPA / play	+0.20 #57	+0.22 #123	USF
Success rate	51% #14	46% #119	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEM scored	6.8 #65	7.8 #89	14.5 #82	4.3 #103	7.8 #59	12.0 #85
USF allowed	2.5 #22	6.8 #58	9.3 #38	0.8 #5	4.0 #30	4.8 #5

USF scoring against the TEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.0 #74	4.3 #126	10.3 #111	5.3 #88	14.5 #3	19.8 #14
TEM allowed	5.3 #85	6.0 #45	11.3 #64	6.0 #90	8.8 #118	14.8 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.