Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Thu, Oct 1, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Mexico State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

1-3 · Power #115

final

Final

New Mexico State

1-3 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

NMSU -1.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 27–28 NMSU

✓ NMSU (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNMSU -1.5

CloseNMSU -1.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNMSU -1.5

no move

CloseNMSU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NMSU -1.5 · unchangedmodel NMSU -2

model NMSU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (213 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNMSU -1.5

CloseNMSU -1.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 55.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.3; 46.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	24–13	W	U55.5
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Close	GAST vs ARST 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–27	L	U59.5
Close	RICE vs FAU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	21–27	L	U55
Close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Close	CLT vs UAB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-1	29–27	W	U60
Close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	24–7	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LLWW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-1
NMSU WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; NMSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3
NMSU UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NMSU	2-8 20%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WKU 2–1 NMSU WKU leads · 3 games since 2023 · WKU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	New Mexico State 16 @ Western Kentucky 35	WKU -7.5	WKU W
Nov 9 2024	Western Kentucky 41 @ New Mexico State 28	WKU -18	NMSU W
Nov 11 2023	New Mexico State 38 @ Western Kentucky 29	WKU -4.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−7.3 →−13.5▼ 6.2#121

NMSU−18.2 →−16.3▲ 1.9#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WKU

Longer bar = better

NMSU

#121

Offense

NMSU better ▶

#89

#136

Defense

NMSU better ▶

#107

−1.3 #130

Turnovers

NMSU better ▶

−0.8 #109

71 plays #36

Pace

◀ WKU faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #115	29.8 #114	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #123	5.79 #96	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	+0.19 #115	Even
Success rate	38% #122	43% #101	NMSU

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #90	41.0 #137	NMSU
Yards / play	6.23 #61	7.00 #133	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #105	+0.42 #138	NMSU
Success rate	41% #99	49% #134	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	2.5 #124	8.5 #79	11.0 #107	3.5 #113	7.0 #74	10.5 #102
NMSU allowed	8.3 #121	7.8 #79	16.0 #111	7.8 #123	6.0 #72	13.8 #106

NMSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #119	8.3 #85	11.5 #104	4.0 #107	10.8 #21	14.8 #61
WKU allowed	8.8 #123	12.3 #131	21.0 #134	13.0 #135	7.0 #92	20.0 #137

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.