Missouri State @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Thu, Oct 8, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

1-3 · Power #130

final

Final

Western Kentucky

1-4 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

MOST -1.5

✓ WKU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 29–28 WKU

✗ MOST (51%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMOST -1.5

CloseMOST -1.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -1.5

no move

CloseMOST -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -1.5 · unchangedmodel WKU -3.5

model WKU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 50% (185 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMOST -1.5

CloseMOST -1.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 1.5-point road favorite at WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 34–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 2.8; 56.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Close	BC @ SYR 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3	34–12	W	U54
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-1	41–30	W	O48
Close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Close	APP @ GAST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-3	41–20	W	O55.5
Close	HAW @ UNM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	21–42	L	O60
Close	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	U53
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	HAW @ USU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	10–55	L	O62
Close	ODU @ APP 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–28	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-0
WKU LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: MOST away, as favorite; WKU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
WKU OOUOU	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WKU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MOST 0–6 WKU WKU leads · 6 games since 2003 · WKU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Western Kentucky 27 @ Missouri State 22	WKU -3.5	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−11.7 →−15.4▼ 3.7#126

WKU−7.3 →−14.4▼ 7.1#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MOST

Longer bar = better

WKU

#95

Offense

◀ MOST better

#125

#124

Defense

Even

#127

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

−1.0 #125

61 plays #114

Pace

WKU faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: MOST offense

	MOST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #100	39.6 #135	MOST
Yards / play	5.64 #94	6.78 #130	MOST
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	+0.28 #132	MOST
Success rate	41% #102	45% #109	Even

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #116	32.0 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.84 #126	6.17 #117	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #131	+0.22 #121	Even
Success rate	36% #128	50% #135	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	8.5 #42	5.0 #118	13.5 #91	7.0 #54	3.5 #127	10.5 #105
WKU allowed	8.2 #123	12.6 #132	20.8 #133	11.8 #136	7.0 #91	18.8 #131

WKU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	2.6 #122	7.4 #95	10.0 #116	4.2 #101	5.6 #101	9.8 #109
MOST allowed	5.8 #97	6.8 #60	12.5 #84	9.5 #129	10.0 #126	19.5 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.