Southern Miss @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Tue, Oct 6, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-3 · Power #127

final

Final

Troy

2-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -9.5

✓ TROY W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 20–30 TROY

✓ TROY (76%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -9.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -8.5

1 → TROY

CloseTROY -9.5

1 pt toward Troy

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -8.5 · closed TROY -9.5 · moved 1 toward TROYmodel TROY -10.5

model TROY -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 47% (172 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (334 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -8.5

CloseTROY -9.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 9.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 55–34; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 9.6; 55.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO vs EMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	35–10	W	U51.5
Very close	LIB vs MOST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	17–21	L	U51.5
Very close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	30–27	L	O48.5
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Very close	BUFF vs EMU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	31–30	L	O53.5
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	16–24	L	U48.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	28–23	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
TROY LLWL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
TROY UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 805 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
TROY	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	0-10 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USM 3–7 TROY TROY leads · 10 games since 1977 · TROY has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Troy 28 @ Southern Miss 18	USM -6.5	TROY W
Nov 30 2024	Southern Miss 20 @ Troy 52	TROY -17.5	TROY W
Nov 25 2023	Troy 35 @ Southern Miss 17	TROY -17	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−8.2 →−14.1▼ 5.9#122

TROY−8.5 →−6.9▲ 1.6#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USM

Longer bar = better

TROY

#96

Offense

◀ USM better

#115

#97

Defense

TROY better ▶

#53

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−0.3 #90

71 plays #28

Pace

Even

72 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	USM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #97	21.5 #55	TROY
Yards / play	5.51 #99	5.24 #63	TROY
PPA / play	+0.07 #106	+0.04 #54	TROY
Success rate	42% #83	37% #41	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	29.5 #115	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #113	5.90 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #115	+0.15 #96	Even
Success rate	38% #121	40% #67	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	2.5 #126	9.8 #64	12.3 #97	8.8 #31	3.5 #125	12.3 #82
TROY allowed	5.3 #83	7.8 #80	13.0 #90	6.0 #87	2.5 #5	8.5 #39

TROY scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.5 #30	8.5 #80	18.0 #52	1.5 #134	1.8 #137	3.3 #138
USM allowed	10.3 #131	7.5 #73	17.8 #119	7.5 #112	4.3 #35	11.8 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.