Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

4-1 · Power #81

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

2-2 · Power #83

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -3

✓ UL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 24–27 LT

✓ LT (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLT -2.5

CloseLT -3

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -2.5

0.5 → LT

CloseLT -3

0.5 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -2.5 · closed LT -3 · moved 0.5 toward LTmodel LT -2

model LT -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (305 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLT -2.5

CloseLT -3

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 3-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 32–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 2.9; 49.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	JXST vs GASO 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–27	W	O51.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	WSU vs FRES 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	6–26	L	U44.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	USM vs JXST 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	42–25	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WWPWL	3-1-1	75%	2-0	1-0
LT WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
LT OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 705 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%
LT	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UL 10–19 LT (3 tied) LT leads · 32 games since 1973 · LT has won the last 9 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−10.9 →−5.4▲ 5.5#87

LT−8.8 →−6.0▲ 2.8#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

#78

Offense

Even

#75

#37

Defense

◀ UL better

#80

+0.6 #44

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #34

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ UL faster

62 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #73	29.0 #113	UL
Yards / play	5.67 #87	5.30 #66	LT
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.10 #83	Even
Success rate	43% #74	39% #56	Even

When LT has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	LT off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #39	19.4 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #59	4.64 #25	UL
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	−0.07 #18	UL
Success rate	39% #118	40% #63	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UL scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.4 #87	9.8 #57	15.2 #69	4.8 #95	9.2 #29	14.0 #62
LT allowed	6.8 #105	3.3 #15	10.0 #52	7.8 #117	11.3 #136	19.0 #131

LT scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	8.8 #33	14.0 #16	22.8 #16	7.0 #50	6.3 #94	13.3 #72
UL allowed	1.4 #4	9.0 #102	10.4 #56	2.0 #13	7.0 #87	9.0 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.