Air Force @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Air Force

3-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

0-4 · Power #134

final

Closing spread

AFA -7

✓ AFA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 28–21 NIU

✓ AFA (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -12.5

CloseAFA -7

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -12.5

5.5 → NIU

CloseAFA -7

5.5 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -12.5 · closed AFA -7 · moved 5.5 toward NIUmodel AFA -5.5

model AFA -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (155 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -12.5

CloseAFA -7

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 7-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 6.9; 51.5 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UL @ CLT 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-9.5	34–7	W	U49.5
Close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Loose	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-5	10–7	L	U47
Loose	JXST @ SHSU 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	29–27	L	O53.5
Loose	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Loose	UNLV @ NEV 2025 · Week 14 · loose	-7.5	42–17	W	O52.5
Loose	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Loose	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Loose	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Loose	JXST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	24–21	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-1
NIU LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
NIU UOOU	2-2	50%	0-4

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	3-7 30%
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−15.2 →−9.1▲ 6.1#104

NIU−14.7 →−17.0▼ 2.3#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

AFA

Longer bar = better

NIU

#79

Offense

◀ AFA better

#131

#43

Defense

◀ AFA better

#121

0.0 #71

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ AFA faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #75	36.3 #132	AFA
Yards / play	5.24 #112	5.89 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.27 #127	AFA
Success rate	44% #64	46% #119	AFA

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	NIU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #137	20.0 #49	AFA
Yards / play	4.60 #133	5.28 #64	AFA
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.02 #44	AFA
Success rate	38% #119	34% #15	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.5 #123	11.8 #30	14.3 #79	2.5 #131	10.0 #20	12.5 #82
NIU allowed	12.0 #137	13.8 #136	25.8 #137	7.0 #101	3.5 #19	10.5 #66

NIU scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	4.3 #100	6.0 #110	10.3 #113	0.0 #138	3.5 #127	3.5 #138
AFA allowed	4.3 #68	6.0 #45	10.3 #55	5.0 #74	3.3 #14	8.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.