Syracuse @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

2-2 · Power #70

final

Final

Virginia

3-2 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -14

✓ SYR W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 18–31 UVA

✓ UVA (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -8.5

CloseUVA -14

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -8.5

5.5 → UVA

CloseUVA -14

5.5 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -8.5 · closed UVA -14 · moved 5.5 toward UVAmodel UVA -9.5

model UVA -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 92%, covered 61% (130 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (217 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -8.5

CloseUVA -14

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 14-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 28–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 12.9; 53.2 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs WAKE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-12.5	42–7	W	U50.5
Close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	WASH vs MINN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-11	21–6	W	U52
Close	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5
Close	UTSA vs CSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-14.5	59–45	L	O56.5
Close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5
Close	ILL vs MD 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total	-16.5	24–6	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WLLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1
UVA WWLWL	3-2	60%	3-0	3-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
UVA UOOUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 745 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
UVA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−3.6 →+0.3▲ 3.9#66

UVA+7.4 →+6.8▼ 0.6#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SYR

Longer bar = better

UVA

#79

Offense

UVA better ▶

#54

#56

Defense

Even

#49

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+1.2 #15

80 plays #3

Pace

◀ SYR faster

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	SYR off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #47	18.0 #36	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #91	4.75 #33	UVA
PPA / play	+0.09 #97	+0.07 #68	UVA
Success rate	43% #81	39% #57	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #51	23.0 #62	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #95	5.02 #50	SYR
PPA / play	+0.25 #37	+0.01 #40	Even
Success rate	48% #33	41% #70	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	5.8 #77	16.8 #5	22.5 #17	3.8 #111	6.5 #83	10.3 #102
UVA allowed	1.4 #4	7.4 #72	8.8 #32	5.8 #86	3.4 #16	9.2 #48

UVA scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	11.8 #8	7.0 #99	18.8 #46	7.0 #50	8.0 #50	15.0 #51
SYR allowed	3.5 #50	6.0 #45	9.5 #43	5.0 #74	6.8 #83	11.8 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.