USC @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

USC

5-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

3-2 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

USC -1.5

✓ USC W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 29–28 PSU

✓ USC (53%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -1.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -1.5

no move

CloseUSC -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -1.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -1.5

model PSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 50% (187 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -1.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 1.5-point road favorite at PSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 31–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.7; 52.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–26	L	U55
Very close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	LSU @ ARK 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–10	W	U57
Close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	23–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-4
PSU WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-1	—

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UOOOU	4-2	67%	5-1
PSU UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
PSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 7–5 PSU USC leads · 12 games since 1922 · USC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Penn State 33 @ USC 30	PSU -3.5	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+17.6 →+14.8▼ 2.8#13

PSU+12.7 →+11.5▼ 1.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USC

Longer bar = better

PSU

#21

Offense

◀ USC better

#70

#90

Defense

PSU better ▶

#39

−0.2 #77

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+1.2 #17

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ USC faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #30	16.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.65 #31	4.77 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	+0.02 #48	USC
Success rate	52% #8	38% #45	USC

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #62	25.5 #87	PSU
Yards / play	6.10 #63	6.00 #108	PSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #54	+0.15 #97	PSU
Success rate	41% #100	40% #68	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USC scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.7 #78	15.3 #11	21.0 #24	8.8 #24	7.5 #60	16.3 #31
PSU allowed	2.6 #19	5.4 #37	8.0 #19	2.0 #13	6.0 #70	8.0 #30

PSU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	7.4 #54	11.0 #40	18.4 #48	8.2 #30	5.4 #105	13.6 #69
USC allowed	3.3 #39	5.2 #34	8.5 #28	7.5 #111	9.5 #124	17.0 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.