Illinois @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F11 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

2-3 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-3 · Power #69

final

Closing spread

ILL -2.5

✓ MSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 25–23 MSU

✓ ILL (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -3

CloseILL -2.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -3

0.5 → MSU

CloseILL -2.5

0.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -3 · closed ILL -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward MSUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (276 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 59% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -3

CloseILL -2.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 2.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 38–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3; 53.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC @ FSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	35–11	W	U50.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	U53
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	FLA @ UK 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	7–38	L	O44.5
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	GT @ STAN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-3
MSU PWWLL	2-2-1	50%	1-1-1	1-2

Venue/role: ILL away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3
MSU OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 700 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 1–0 MSU ILL leads · 1 game since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Michigan State 16 @ Illinois 38	ILL -1.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+7.7 →+4.2▼ 3.5#53

MSU+0.6 →+1.1▲ 0.5#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ILL

Longer bar = better

MSU

#41

Offense

◀ ILL better

#119

#109

Defense

MSU better ▶

#83

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

−0.8 #115

61 plays #118

Pace

MSU faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #69	23.2 #63	Even
Yards / play	6.68 #30	5.62 #89	ILL
PPA / play	+0.24 #38	+0.19 #110	ILL
Success rate	49% #27	41% #71	ILL

When MSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #126	26.0 #95	ILL
Yards / play	4.52 #134	5.73 #98	ILL
PPA / play	−0.06 #129	+0.27 #129	Even
Success rate	42% #88	45% #115	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	9.0 #32	9.6 #65	18.6 #48	2.6 #126	9.4 #25	12.0 #87
MSU allowed	6.2 #100	8.2 #86	14.4 #98	3.4 #42	5.4 #53	8.8 #39

MSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.0 #104	7.2 #96	11.2 #104	3.4 #116	3.6 #128	7.0 #135
ILL allowed	6.8 #106	10.2 #117	17.0 #118	2.6 #28	6.4 #77	9.0 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.