Northwestern @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

4-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-4 · Power #69

final

Closing spread

NU -7.5

✓ MSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 28–21 MSU

✓ NU (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -8.5

CloseNU -7.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -8.5

1 → MSU

CloseNU -7.5

1 pt toward Michigan State

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -8.5 · closed NU -7.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel NU -5.5

model NU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 53% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (385 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -8.5

CloseNU -7.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 7.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.2 against an average line of 6.9; 54.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	TENN @ UK 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	56–34	W	O55
Very close	IU @ MSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	47–10	W	O53.5
Very close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	20–10	W	U51
Close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Close	ASU @ ARIZ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	49–7	W	O53.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-0	2-1
MSU WWLLW	3-2-1	60%	2-1-1	2-2

Venue/role: NU away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OOOOO	5-0	100%	4-1
MSU UUUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	8-2 80%
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NU 20–41 MSU MSU leads · 61 games since 1905 · NU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU+2.4 →+9.0▲ 6.6#34

MSU+0.6 →+0.9▲ 0.3#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

MSU

#16

Offense

◀ NU better

#107

#65

Defense

◀ NU better

#97

+1.2 #8

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−0.7 #119

62 plays #110

Pace

MSU faster ▶

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #38	25.7 #91	NU
Yards / play	7.08 #11	5.66 #91	NU
PPA / play	+0.36 #6	+0.19 #112	NU
Success rate	51% #10	43% #95	NU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	MSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	16.2 #23	NU
Yards / play	4.77 #129	5.29 #64	NU
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.09 #71	NU
Success rate	44% #66	44% #101	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	7.6 #47	9.6 #61	17.2 #53	9.8 #15	8.4 #45	18.2 #17
MSU allowed	6.8 #112	8.5 #90	15.3 #107	3.3 #37	5.8 #66	9.2 #45

MSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.3 #115	7.2 #100	10.5 #113	4.5 #103	5.3 #107	9.8 #109
NU allowed	0.4 #1	7.4 #73	7.8 #17	3.2 #34	5.2 #51	8.4 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.