Virginia @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia

4-2 · Power #50

final

Final

SMU

4-1 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -10

Push

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 21–31 SMU

✓ SMU (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -7.5

CloseSMU -10

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -7.5

2.5 → SMU

CloseSMU -10

2.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -7.5 · closed SMU -10 · moved 2.5 toward SMUmodel SMU -6.5

model SMU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (155 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (339 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -7.5

CloseSMU -10

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 10-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 23–13; the favorite pushed, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 9.7; 47 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	OKST vs UCF 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	42–28	W	O53.5
Close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Close	PITT vs BC 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	48–7	W	O54.5
Close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Close	ISU vs ASU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	19–24	L	U48.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	31–24	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WLWLL	3-3	50%	0-1	—
SMU PWLLL	1-3-1	25%	1-2	1-2-1

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
SMU UOOUU	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
SMU	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UVA 0–2 SMU SMU leads · 2 games since 2024 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	SMU 33 @ Virginia 7	SMU -10.5	SMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA+7.4 →+5.5▼ 1.9#46

SMU+9.9 →+8.4▼ 1.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UVA

Longer bar = better

SMU

#53

Offense

SMU better ▶

#28

#48

Defense

Even

#49

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−0.8 #124

69 plays #44

Pace

Even

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #52	23.0 #64	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #96	4.95 #43	SMU
PPA / play	+0.25 #29	+0.06 #59	UVA
Success rate	48% #36	37% #30	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #46	19.2 #37	Even
Yards / play	7.04 #13	4.85 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #38	+0.08 #70	SMU
Success rate	50% #16	39% #53	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	11.0 #14	5.8 #111	16.8 #57	7.0 #51	9.0 #28	16.0 #36
SMU allowed	8.2 #126	0.6 #1	8.8 #29	4.2 #59	10.0 #130	14.2 #114

SMU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.8 #65	13.8 #16	20.6 #27	5.4 #87	8.6 #39	14.0 #63
UVA allowed	2.3 #13	7.8 #77	10.2 #52	4.8 #75	4.2 #24	9.0 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.