UCF @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-2 · Power #55

final

Final

Oklahoma State

3-1 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

OKST -10.5

✓ OKST W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 20–30 OKST

✓ OKST (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOKST -10

CloseOKST -10.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOKST -10

0.5 → OKST

CloseOKST -10.5

0.5 pts toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OKST -10 · closed OKST -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward OKSTmodel OKST -4

model OKST -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 44% (168 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOKST -10

CloseOKST -10.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OKST as a 10.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: OKST won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 53.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 9.7; 46 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	47–45	L	O53
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	40–7	W	U59
Very close	CIN vs ARIZ 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–30	L	U56.5
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	17–20	L	U58.5
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	21–24	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-0
OKST LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OUOUU	2-3	40%	3-2
OKST UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 730 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-5 50%
OKST	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UCF 2–1 OKST UCF leads · 3 games since 2023 · OKST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Oklahoma State 14 @ UCF 17	UCF -12.5	OKST W
Nov 11 2023	Oklahoma State 3 @ UCF 45	OKST -2	UCF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+0.7 →+4.2▲ 3.5#52

OKST−8.9 →+4.6▲ 13.5#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UCF

Longer bar = better

OKST

#85

Offense

OKST better ▶

#41

#36

Defense

Even

#46

+1.0 #18

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−1.0 #127

56 plays #134

Pace

OKST faster ▶

78 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: OKST defense

	UCF off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #59	19.8 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #56	5.08 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	−0.01 #37	OKST
Success rate	39% #113	38% #46	OKST

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #31	17.6 #33	Even
Yards / play	7.07 #13	4.77 #37	OKST
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	−0.04 #27	UCF
Success rate	47% #36	38% #48	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	10.4 #18	6.0 #109	16.4 #66	9.8 #17	6.2 #91	16.0 #40
OKST allowed	4.3 #72	6.0 #46	10.3 #55	6.0 #87	3.5 #21	9.5 #51

OKST scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	5.0 #93	12.8 #28	17.8 #52	12.3 #8	7.3 #71	19.5 #15
UCF allowed	3.4 #41	5.8 #45	9.2 #38	4.0 #51	4.4 #39	8.4 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.