Houston @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F16 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston

4-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Kansas State

3-1 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

KSU -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 25–27 KSU

✗ KSU (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -2.5

CloseKSU -2.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -2.5

no move

CloseKSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -0.5

model KSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (359 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -2.5

CloseKSU -2.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 35–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3.1; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Very close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Very close	DUKE vs GT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	18–27	L	U60.5
Very close	CIN vs ARIZ 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	24–30	L	U56.5
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–28	L	O51.5
Very close	VAN vs LSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	31–24	W	O48.5
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-0
KSU WWLL	2-2	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	4-1	80%	4-1
KSU OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
KSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 1–1 KSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Kansas State 19 @ Houston 24	KSU -9.5	HOU W
Oct 28 2023	Houston 0 @ Kansas State 41	KSU -18	KSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+3.9 →+10.5▲ 6.6#25

KSU+6.3 →+8.0▲ 1.7#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HOU

Longer bar = better

KSU

#15

Offense

Even

#27

#64

Defense

KSU better ▶

#22

+0.6 #42

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.3 #90

70 plays #33

Pace

KSU faster ▶

73 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #17	15.3 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.88 #17	4.51 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #20	+0.01 #41	HOU
Success rate	54% #4	32% #6	Even

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #19	19.8 #46	KSU
Yards / play	6.62 #32	5.47 #76	KSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #28	+0.09 #78	KSU
Success rate	49% #28	39% #55	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	12.2 #8	10.4 #45	22.6 #16	10.4 #13	8.0 #51	18.4 #19
KSU allowed	1.8 #13	5.8 #45	7.5 #18	4.3 #62	3.5 #20	7.8 #28

KSU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.0 #59	14.8 #12	21.8 #20	9.5 #22	9.3 #28	18.8 #17
HOU allowed	2.8 #25	6.2 #51	9.0 #37	6.6 #95	4.2 #30	10.8 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.