Kansas @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

2-3 · Power #46

final

Final

Kansas State

3-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -3

✓ KSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 26–29 KSU

✓ KSU (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -8.5

CloseKSU -3

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -8.5

5.5 → KU

CloseKSU -3

5.5 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -8.5 · closed KSU -3 · moved 5.5 toward KUmodel KSU -1.5

model KSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (309 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (118 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -8.5

CloseKSU -3

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 3-point home favorite against KU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 35–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 3.1; 52.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5
Very close	LOU vs FSU 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	44–20	W	O60.5
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Close	TCU vs CIN 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3	45–23	W	O58.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	UTAH vs TCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	7–13	L	U51.5
Close	MEM vs TULN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	32–38	L	O53.5
Close	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5
Close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Close	MIZ vs AUB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–17	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-3
KSU WWLLL	2-3	40%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3
KSU OUOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 680 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%
KSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

KU 0–3 KSU KSU leads · 3 games since 2023 · KSU has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Kansas State 42 @ Kansas 17	KU -3.5	KSU W
Oct 26 2024	Kansas 27 @ Kansas State 29	KSU -9.5	KU W
Nov 18 2023	Kansas State 31 @ Kansas 27	KSU -7	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+3.1 →+6.6▲ 3.5#42

KSU+6.3 →+5.6▼ 0.7#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

KSU

#49

Offense

KSU better ▶

#35

#37

Defense

◀ KU better

#58

−0.6 #112

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #100

72 plays #19

Pace

◀ KU faster

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #50	19.2 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.64 #27	5.01 #48	KU
PPA / play	+0.17 #59	+0.15 #101	KU
Success rate	45% #58	38% #42	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #36	21.8 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #41	4.92 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #31	−0.01 #33	Even
Success rate	48% #31	35% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

KU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	1.8 #131	15.8 #6	17.6 #51	7.0 #51	9.0 #28	16.0 #36
KSU allowed	2.8 #22	7.4 #73	10.2 #53	6.2 #93	2.8 #8	9.0 #37

KSU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.2 #69	11.8 #29	18.0 #49	8.8 #25	8.8 #35	17.6 #22
KU allowed	3.4 #38	5.6 #38	9.0 #31	5.4 #84	7.4 #103	12.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.