TCU @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

TCU

2-3 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

4-1 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

BAY -3.5

✓ TCU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 23–27 BAY

✗ BAY (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -6.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -6.5

3 → TCU

CloseBAY -3.5

3 pts toward TCU

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BAY -6.5 · closed BAY -3.5 · moved 3 toward TCUmodel BAY -4.5

model BAY -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (374 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (271 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAY -6.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TCU	BAY	Over	Under	TCU	BAY
DraftKingsDK	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	50.5-108	50.5-112	+150	-180

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 3.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 17–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 3; 59.9 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BYU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	41–19	W	O48.5
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	MEM vs NAVY 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–28	L	U57.5
Close	MEM vs TULN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	32–38	L	O53.5
Close	WASH vs ILL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	42–25	W	O54.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	31–28	L	O51.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	MIZ vs AUB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	21–17	W	U49.5
Close	VAN vs LSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	31–24	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LWWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1
BAY WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UOUUU	1-4	20%	2-3
BAY UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BAY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TCU 2–1 BAY TCU leads · 3 games since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Baylor 36 @ TCU 42	TCU -3.5	TCU W
Nov 2 2024	TCU 34 @ Baylor 37	BAY -2.5	BAY W
Nov 18 2023	Baylor 17 @ TCU 42	TCU -13	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+8.0 →+7.0▼ 1.0#39

BAY+4.5 →+8.6▲ 4.1#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TCU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#80

Offense

Even

#72

#18

Defense

Even

#13

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

BAY better ▶

+0.4 #40

66 plays #71

Pace

BAY faster ▶

81 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	TCU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #92	14.2 #11	BAY
Yards / play	6.14 #56	4.52 #16	BAY
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	−0.07 #10	BAY
Success rate	42% #82	35% #16	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	BAY off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #42	13.4 #8	TCU
Yards / play	5.71 #83	4.57 #17	TCU
PPA / play	+0.16 #65	−0.07 #12	TCU
Success rate	40% #98	37% #36	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.2 #71	7.6 #94	13.8 #87	4.8 #97	6.8 #75	11.6 #91
BAY allowed	3.8 #43	3.4 #16	7.2 #15	1.2 #3	5.8 #61	7.0 #15

BAY scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	7.6 #47	11.4 #34	19.0 #36	8.0 #30	7.8 #54	15.8 #36
TCU allowed	3.4 #36	6.0 #45	9.4 #37	1.2 #3	2.8 #7	4.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.