Arkansas @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-4 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

3-3 · Power #60

final

Closing spread

VAN -5.5

✓ ARK W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 23–28 VAN

✗ VAN (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -6.5

CloseVAN -5.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -6.5

1 → ARK

CloseVAN -5.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened VAN -6.5 · closed VAN -5.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel VAN -4.5

model VAN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (221 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (389 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVAN -6.5

CloseVAN -5.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ARK	VAN	Over	Under	ARK	VAN
DraftKingsDK	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	48.5-110	48.5-110	+185	-225

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 5.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 31–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 5.5; 58.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	13–38	L	U51.5
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	WVU vs COLO 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	29–22	W	U51.5
Very close	MINN vs PUR 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–20	L	U49.5
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	NCSU vs UNC 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	42–19	W	O49
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LLWLW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-3
VAN LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK UOUUU	1-5	17%	2-4
VAN OOUOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Went over in Q3. Of 722 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
VAN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+7.3 →+1.4▼ 5.9#62

VAN+13.0 →+3.2▼ 9.8#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARK

Longer bar = better

VAN

#112

Offense

Even

#102

#107

Defense

Even

#95

−0.2 #81

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

−0.5 #103

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ ARK faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #121	29.5 #117	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #127	5.55 #83	VAN
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.11 #88	VAN
Success rate	42% #78	43% #90	Even

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #96	27.7 #105	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #108	5.94 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.22 #118	Even
Success rate	40% #105	43% #98	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	4.5 #95	2.7 #137	7.2 #130	4.7 #98	7.5 #56	12.2 #85
VAN allowed	8.0 #123	12.0 #128	20.0 #133	3.5 #37	6.0 #64	9.5 #48

VAN scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.3 #91	4.0 #129	9.3 #121	7.8 #35	6.8 #71	14.7 #52
ARK allowed	4.7 #65	8.8 #100	13.5 #91	6.7 #99	7.5 #99	14.2 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.