Kentucky @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

5-1 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

3-2 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

OU -7

✓ UK W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 19–26 OU

✗ OU (69%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -6.5

CloseOU -7

Total41.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -6.5

0.5 → OU

CloseOU -7

0.5 pts toward Oklahoma

Total

Open41.5

▲ 3

Close44.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened OU -6.5 · closed OU -7 · moved 0.5 toward OUmodel OU -7.5

model OU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (220 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOU -6.5

CloseOU -7

Total41.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UK	OU	Over	Under	UK	OU
DraftKingsDK	+7-110	-7-110	44.5-108	44.5-112	+220	-270

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 7-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 21–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 6.7; 43.8 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs VAN 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–31	L	O48.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–3	W	O39.5
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	37–17	W	O48
Close	ASU vs HOU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–24	L	U47
Close	PSU vs NEB 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	37–10	W	O45.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	28–21	P	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK LWWWW	5-1	83%	2-0	3-1
OU WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
OU UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.5 →+10.3▲ 4.8#29

OU+15.2 →+14.0▼ 1.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

#40

Offense

◀ UK better

#120

#88

Defense

OU better ▶

#15

+1.2 #10

Turnovers

◀ UK better

−0.8 #123

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ UK faster

61 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	UK off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #45	17.6 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #48	4.65 #21	OU
PPA / play	+0.21 #45	−0.15 #5	OU
Success rate	49% #20	32% #4	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	OU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #103	28.0 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #118	5.32 #66	UK
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	+0.06 #62	UK
Success rate	37% #126	45% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UK scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	5.8 #81	12.0 #27	17.8 #45	8.2 #27	6.0 #96	14.2 #56
OU allowed	4.2 #55	8.0 #76	12.2 #70	0.6 #1	4.8 #40	5.4 #6

OU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	4.2 #99	4.0 #132	8.2 #126	8.0 #30	6.8 #74	14.8 #48
UK allowed	5.2 #81	9.0 #100	14.2 #97	4.5 #65	7.0 #88	11.5 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.