Oklahoma @ Mississippi State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast77°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #29

projected

OU 55%

45% MSST

Spread

OU -2.5

open OU -1.5

Total

47.5

model 50

Spread edge

MSST by 3

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenOU -1.5

CurrentOU -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenOU -1.5

1 → OU

NowOU -2.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Now47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened OU -1.5 · now OU -3 · moved 1.5 toward OUmodel MSST -0.5

model MSST -0.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (289 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenOU -1.5

CurrentOU -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:04

Oklahoma at Mississippi State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:50 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward Oklahoma. Here is why that matters. It’s Oklahoma at Mississippi State, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Oklahoma sits 23rd, Mississippi State 29th. That’s about 2 points better than Mississippi State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Oklahoma has slipped from 13th to 23rd, while Mississippi State has moved up from 45th to 29th. Kickoff forecast at Davis Wade Stadium: 76 degrees, dry, wind 7 miles per hour. Oklahoma is 1 and 3 against the spread as favorite. Mississippi State has the better offense, 41st to 123rd. Oklahoma has the better defense, 14th to 101st. Mississippi State plays at the faster pace. The model has Oklahoma winning 26 to 24, a 57 percent chance. Oklahoma is favored by 3, up from 1.5 at the open, away from our model. The total is 46.5. Our model makes it Mississippi State by 0.5, with a total near 50. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	OU	MSST	Over	Under	OU	MSST
BetMGMMGM	-3.5-102	+3.5-118	46.5-108	46.5-110	-175	+140
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-113	+3-107	43.5-140	43.5+120	-165	+145
BetRiversBetRivers	-3.5-109	+3.5-114	46.5-112	46.5-112	-177	+140
BetUSBetUS	-3-115	+3-105	46.5-110	46.5-110	-165	+142
BovadaBovada	-3-120	+3+100	46-110	46-110	-165	+140
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	47.5-110	47.5-110	-142	+120
FanDuelFD	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	46.5-110	46.5-110	-178	+146
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3-109	+3-103	43.5-140	43.5+120	-165	+145
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-3-110	+3-110	46-110	46-110	-172	+140

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

4 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	OU	MSST	Over	Under
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-117	+2.5-114	23.5-106	23.5-127
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	23.5-111	23.5-109
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	23.5-112	23.5-108
FanDuelFD	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	22.5-118	22.5-104

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

MSST

Bets83% 17%

Money49% 51%

Money is 34 pts ahead of bets on MSST

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 2.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 3.2; 58.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	19–27	L	U46.5
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	23–7	W	U48.5
Close	FLA @ UK 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	7–38	L	O44.5
Close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Close	TA&M @ FLA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–20	W	O45.5
Close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Close	ISU @ KU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	36–45	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU LLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	1-3
MSST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-3
MSST UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 1292 games with totals 43.5–51.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MSST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs SC	W26–7WU
Nov 7	@ FLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs MISS	L26–34LO

Mississippi State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ TEX	L38–45WO
Nov 7	vs VAN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs AUB	L13–27LP

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+15.2 →+12.4▼ 2.8#22

MSST+5.6 →+10.5▲ 4.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

MSST

#123

Offense

MSST better ▶

#41

#14

Defense

◀ OU better

#101

−1.3 #135

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

−0.5 #106

63 plays #108

Pace

MSST faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: MSST defense

	OU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	28.5 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.97 #123	5.49 #75	MSST
PPA / play	−0.06 #133	+0.14 #95	MSST
Success rate	38% #125	46% #123	Even

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	MSST off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #48	18.2 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #38	4.59 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	−0.11 #5	OU
Success rate	48% #33	33% #3	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

OU scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	4.0 #98	4.5 #128	8.5 #125	7.2 #39	5.7 #103	12.8 #79
MSST allowed	7.3 #118	7.8 #76	15.2 #105	9.2 #132	4.2 #24	13.3 #100

MSST scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #20	9.7 #56	19.0 #33	6.0 #71	7.5 #56	13.5 #66
OU allowed	4.7 #68	6.7 #62	11.3 #60	0.5 #1	6.3 #73	6.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.