Mississippi State @ Texas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Texas · Conference game

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #29

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

MSST 16%

84% TEX

Spread

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Total

—

model 54.5

Model line

TEX -14

TEX 84% to win

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Winner

Market

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	—
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	—

Venue/role: MSST away; TEX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mississippi State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs VAN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs AUB	L13–27LP
Nov 21	vs TNTC	No meeting since 2023

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MIZ	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ LSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs ARK	W52–37WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSST 0–2 TEX TEX leads · 2 games since 2023 · TEX has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Texas 45 @ Mississippi State 38	TEX -8.5	MSST W
Sep 28 2024	Mississippi State 13 @ Texas 35	TEX -38.5	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+5.6 →+10.5▲ 4.9#29

TEX+18.4 →+20.5▲ 2.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MSST

Longer bar = better

TEX

#41

Offense

◀ MSST better

#89

#101

Defense

TEX better ▶

#16

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #105

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ MSST faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	MSST off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #48	17.8 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #38	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	−0.01 #25	TEX
Success rate	48% #33	34% #10	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #63	28.5 #111	TEX
Yards / play	5.43 #104	5.49 #75	MSST
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	43% #76	46% #123	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #19	9.7 #56	19.0 #33	6.0 #70	7.5 #55	13.5 #65
TEX allowed	2.7 #15	5.7 #37	8.3 #26	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #44

TEX scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #34	7.8 #90	15.8 #62	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
MSST allowed	7.3 #118	7.8 #78	15.2 #105	9.2 #132	4.2 #23	13.3 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.