Ohio State @ USC: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at USC · Conference game

Kickoff forecast70°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #2

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

USC

6-1 · Power #18

projected

OSU 69%

31% USC

Spread

OSU -6.5

open OSU -7.5

Total

53.5

model 57.5

Spread edge

OSU by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenOSU -7.5

CurrentOSU -6.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenOSU -7.5

1 → USC

NowOSU -6.5

1 pt toward USC

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Now53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -7.5 · now OSU -6.5 · moved 1 toward USCmodel OSU -8.5

model OSU -8.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (207 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenOSU -7.5

CurrentOSU -6.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

2 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	OSU	USC	Over	Under	OSU	USC
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-115	+6.5-105	53.5-110	53.5-110	-238	+195
FanDuelFD	-6.5-120	+6.5-102	54.5-105	54.5-115	-255	+205

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 9:54 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at USC, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 6.7; 55 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-9	38–10	W	U59
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	TA&M @ ARK 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	ALA @ LSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	42–13	W	U58.5
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-5	16–29	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	3-0	4-2
USC LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-4	0-1

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; USC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1
USC OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-1

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ohio State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs ORE	W41–21WO
Nov 14	vs NU	W31–7LU
Nov 21	@ NEB	W21–17LU

USC

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ IU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs MD	L28–29LO
Nov 28	@ UCLA	W29–10LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+27.1 →+25.8▼ 1.3#2

USC+17.6 →+14.0▼ 3.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

OSU

Longer bar = better

USC

#14

Offense

Even

#16

#10

Defense

◀ OSU better

#82

+0.3 #56

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #69

69 plays #47

Pace

Even

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #12	25.1 #78	OSU
Yards / play	6.95 #11	5.95 #105	OSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	+0.13 #91	OSU
Success rate	50% #10	40% #55	OSU

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #26	13.4 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #21	4.21 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	52% #7	35% #18	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	12.3 #5	11.9 #26	24.1 #8	5.9 #77	9.3 #24	15.1 #39
USC allowed	3.9 #44	5.9 #46	9.7 #46	6.9 #104	8.6 #120	15.4 #123

USC scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.9 #76	14.6 #6	20.4 #24	8.6 #19	7.4 #58	16.0 #33
OSU allowed	2.3 #11	3.3 #12	5.6 #4	1.3 #5	6.6 #82	7.9 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.