Wisconsin @ Iowa: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Iowa · Conference game

Kickoff forecast59°F11 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wisconsin

4-2 · Power #33

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Iowa

5-1 · Power #27

projected

WIS 37%

63% IOWA

Spread

IOWA -4.5

no move since the open

Total

39.5

model 37.5

Spread edge

IOWA by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIOWA -4.5

CurrentIOWA -4.5

Total39.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenIOWA -4.5

no move

NowIOWA -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open39.5

no move

Now39.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -4.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -5

model IOWA -5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (255 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIOWA -4.5

CurrentIOWA -4.5

Total39.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WIS	IOWA	Over	Under	WIS	IOWA
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-105	-4.5-115	39.5-110	39.5-110	+160	-192

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 10:55 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 4.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 4.2; 46.7 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	41–3	W	O39.5
Very close	IOWA vs WIS 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	42–10	W	O40.5
Very close	WASH vs IOWA 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	24–41	L	O41.5
Very close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Very close	IOWA vs PSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	IOWA vs WASH 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	40–16	W	O41.5
Close	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	14–7	W	U40
Close	VAN vs AUB 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	45–38	W	O46.5
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	23–0	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LWWWL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-2
IOWA LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS UOOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
IOWA UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-1

In 270 games with totals 35.5–43.5, 56% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
IOWA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wisconsin

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs RUTG	W42–7WO
Nov 14	@ MD	L10–27LU
Nov 21	@ PUR	W52–6WO

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ NU	W40–14WO
Nov 14	vs PUR	W20–14W
Nov 21	@ ILL	W15–13LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WIS 49–48 IOWA (2 tied) WIS leads · 99 games since 1894 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Iowa 37 @ Wisconsin 0	IOWA -4.5	IOWA W
Nov 2 2024	Wisconsin 10 @ Iowa 42	IOWA -2.5	IOWA W
Oct 14 2023	Iowa 15 @ Wisconsin 6	WIS -8.5	IOWA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+3.3 →+9.2▲ 5.9#33

IOWA+11.4 →+11.4–#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WIS

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#85

Offense

IOWA better ▶

#42

#17

Defense

Even

#24

0.0 #76

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+0.3 #49

59 plays #129

Pace

Even

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	WIS off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #80	14.5 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.96 #61	4.58 #16	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.05 #48	IOWA
Success rate	38% #121	36% #24	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	IOWA off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #60	16.7 #23	WIS
Yards / play	6.54 #29	4.32 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	−0.04 #14	WIS
Success rate	47% #41	36% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	6.2 #71	8.5 #79	14.7 #75	6.2 #68	6.7 #79	12.8 #78
IOWA allowed	2.8 #18	3.8 #15	6.7 #10	4.7 #67	3.2 #9	7.8 #20

IOWA scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	11.2 #10	9.7 #56	20.8 #21	3.5 #124	6.7 #79	10.2 #107
WIS allowed	4.3 #57	5.0 #28	9.3 #39	3.3 #36	4.0 #18	7.3 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.