Minnesota @ Indiana: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Indiana · Conference game

Minnesota

4-2 · Power #65

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Indiana

6-1 · Power #7

projected

MINN 5%

95% IU

Spread

IU -22.5

no move since the open

Total

45.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

IU by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 11:15 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIU -22.5

CurrentIU -22.5

Total45.5

Last update11:15 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenIU -22.5

no move

NowIU -22.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Now45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened IU -22.5 · unchangedmodel IU -26.5

model IU -26.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: IU by 4.0 pts (open -22.5, now -22.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 74.6% of the 264 games where the line moved (295 at that gap), but those sides covered 53.1% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 51% (99 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 11:15 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIU -22.5

CurrentIU -22.5

Total45.5

Last update11:15 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MINN	IU	Over	Under	MINN	IU
DraftKingsDK	+22.5-110	-22.5-110	45.5-110	45.5-110	+1100	-2100

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 11:15 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 22.5-point home favorite against MINN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 21.6; 44.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs MINN 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-23.5	42–3	W	O42.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-24.5	48–9	W	O48.5
Very close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	OSU vs MICH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-20	10–13	L	U41.5
Very close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Very close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Very close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.5	35–14	L	U51
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	2-1
IU LLWLL	1-6	14%	0-5	1-5

Venue/role: MINN away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2
IU UOOUU	3-4	43%	6-1

In 1026 games with totals 41.5–49.5, 54% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 34% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
IU	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UCLA	W21–17WU
Nov 14	@ PSU	L25–26WO
Nov 21	vs NU	L35–38WO

Indiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs USC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ WASH	W31–17WU
Nov 28	vs PUR	W56–3WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+1.1 →+0.5▼ 0.6#67

IU+23.3 →+21.7▼ 1.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MINN

Longer bar = better

#96

Offense

IU better ▶

#18

#54

Defense

IU better ▶

#14

+0.2 #60

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+0.4 #44

63 plays #106

Pace

◀ MINN faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MINN off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #72	12.9 #4	IU
Yards / play	5.43 #106	4.32 #8	IU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	−0.01 #24	IU
Success rate	41% #90	35% #19	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #24	21.8 #54	IU
Yards / play	7.42 #4	5.01 #41	IU
PPA / play	+0.36 #2	+0.05 #51	IU
Success rate	47% #42	41% #70	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.0 #34	7.3 #95	15.3 #66	6.7 #54	6.8 #71	13.5 #65
IU allowed	1.9 #7	1.9 #2	3.7 #1	3.9 #45	5.3 #45	9.1 #40

IU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	7.0 #50	10.7 #37	17.7 #42	8.3 #23	10.6 #9	18.9 #11
MINN allowed	4.0 #46	9.2 #105	13.2 #86	1.7 #8	7.0 #89	8.7 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.