Iowa @ Minnesota: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Kickoff forecast74°F11 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

5-1 · Power #27

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Minnesota

4-2 · Power #65

projected

IOWA 71%

29% MINN

Spread

IOWA -7.5

open IOWA -4.5

Total

40.5

model 39.5

Spread edge

IOWA by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIOWA -4.5

CurrentIOWA -7.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenIOWA -4.5

3 → IOWA

NowIOWA -7.5

3 pts toward Iowa

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Now40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -4.5 · now IOWA -7 · moved 2.5 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -9

model IOWA -9

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: IOWA by 4.5 pts (open -4.5, now -7.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 74.6% of the 264 games where the line moved (295 at that gap), but those sides covered 53.1% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (176 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenIOWA -4.5

CurrentIOWA -7.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:01

Iowa at Minnesota: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:48 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 2.5 points toward Iowa since it opened. Iowa visits Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Iowa sits 27th, Minnesota 65th. That’s about 10.5 points better than Minnesota on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Iowa has slipped from 24th to 27th, while Minnesota has held steady around 65th. Kickoff forecast at Huntington Bank Stadium: 69 degrees, dry, wind 12 miles per hour, gusting to 17. Iowa has the better offense, 43rd to 96th. Iowa has the better defense, 25th to 54th. Minnesota is 3 and 1 against the spread at home. The model has Iowa winning 23 to 16, a 70 percent chance. Iowa is favored by 7, up from 4.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 42.5 and sits at 40.5. Our model makes it Iowa by 9, with a total near 39. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	IOWA	MINN	Over	Under	IOWA	MINN
BetMGMMGM	-7-105	+7-112	40.5-110	40.5-108	-275	+220
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-7.5+105	+7.5-125	40.5-110	40.5-110	-270	+222
BetRiversBetRivers	-7-109	+7-114	40.5-113	40.5-110	-305	+230
BetUSBetUS	-7-110	+7-110	40.5-110	40.5-110	-260	+218
BovadaBovada	-7-105	+7-115	41-105	41-115	-260	+215
DraftKingsDK	-7.5-105	+7.5-115	40.5-112	40.5-108	-285	+230
FanDuelFD	-7.5+100	+7.5-122	40.5-112	40.5-108	-285	+230
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-7.5+109	+7.5-122	40.5-108	40.5-108	-270	+222
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-7-110	+7-110	40.5-110	40.5-110	-265	+208

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	IOWA	MINN	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-3.5-120	+3.5+100	20.5+101	20.5-121
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-120	+3.5+100	20.5-105	20.5-115
FanDuelFD	-3.5-122	+3.5+100	20.5+106	20.5-130

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

IOWA -7.5

MINN +7.5

Bets69% 31%

Money47% 53%

Money is 22 pts ahead of bets on MINN +7.5

Winner

IOWA

MINN

Bets96% 4%

Money84% 16%

Money is 12 pts ahead of bets on MINN

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 7.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 7; 36.4 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA @ MSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	20–32	L	O39.5
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	MINN @ RUTG 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	19–26	L	O44.5
Close	IOWA @ WIS 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-5	37–0	W	U37.5
Close	SC @ VAN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-6	28–7	W	U45
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	WIS @ NU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	23–3	W	U42.5
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	6–24	L	U47.5
Close	TOL @ BGSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	23–28	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	2-1
MINN LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
MINN UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2

In 380 games with totals 36.5–44.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs WIS	W37–0WU
Nov 7	@ NU	W40–14WO
Nov 14	vs PUR	W20–14W

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ IU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 7	vs UCLA	W21–17WU
Nov 14	@ PSU	L25–26WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

IOWA 54–62 MINN (2 tied) MINN leads · 118 games since 1901 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Minnesota 3 @ Iowa 41	IOWA -7.5	IOWA W
Sep 21 2024	Iowa 31 @ Minnesota 14	IOWA -2.5	IOWA W
Oct 21 2023	Minnesota 12 @ Iowa 10	IOWA -3.5	MINN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+11.4 →+11.3▼ 0.1#27

MINN+1.1 →+0.8▼ 0.3#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

IOWA

Longer bar = better

MINN

#43

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#96

#25

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#54

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #60

62 plays #116

Pace

Even

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #61	21.8 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.54 #29	5.01 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	+0.05 #51	Even
Success rate	47% #41	41% #70	IOWA

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MINN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #73	14.5 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.43 #107	4.58 #17	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.05 #48	IOWA
Success rate	41% #90	36% #24	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	11.2 #10	9.7 #56	20.8 #21	3.5 #124	6.7 #78	10.2 #107
MINN allowed	4.0 #46	9.2 #105	13.2 #85	1.7 #7	7.0 #89	8.7 #32

MINN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.0 #35	7.3 #95	15.3 #68	6.7 #55	6.8 #70	13.5 #66
IOWA allowed	2.8 #19	3.8 #16	6.7 #10	4.7 #67	3.2 #9	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.