Michigan State @ UCLA: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UCLA · Conference game

Kickoff forecast75°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #69

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

UCLA

6-0 · Power #16

projected

MSU 13%

87% UCLA

Spread

UCLA -14.5

open UCLA -13.5

Total

43.5

model 49.5

Spread edge

UCLA by 5.5

lean · context

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUCLA -13.5

CurrentUCLA -14.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUCLA -13.5

1 → UCLA

NowUCLA -14.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Now43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -13.5 · now UCLA -15.5 · moved 2 toward UCLAmodel UCLA -20

model UCLA -20

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: UCLA by 6.4 pts (open -13.5, now -14.5). In 2025–2026, with a 6+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 79.2% of the 125 games where the line moved (133 at that gap), but those sides covered 56.9% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 60% (156 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUCLA -13.5

CurrentUCLA -14.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:09

Michigan State at UCLA: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:42 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Our ratings see a big gap between these two. Michigan State visits UCLA, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, UCLA sits 16th, Michigan State 69th. That’s about 14 points better than Michigan State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Michigan State has held steady around 69th, while UCLA has risen from 59th to 16th. Kickoff forecast at Rose Bowl: 77 degrees, dry, wind 4 miles per hour. UCLA has the better offense, 40th to 106th. On defense, UCLA ranks 13th and Michigan State 92nd. UCLA is 6 and 0 against the spread this season. UCLA is 5 and 0 against the spread as favorite. Our model projects UCLA 32, Michigan State 17, with a 87 percent win chance. UCLA is favored by 14.5, up from 13.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 47.5 and sits at 43.5. Our model makes it UCLA by 20, with a total near 49.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MSU	UCLA	Over	Under	MSU	UCLA
BetMGMMGM	+15-110	-15-108	43.5-112	43.5-105	+525	-700
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+15-107	-15-113	43.5-113	43.5-107	+505	-700
BetRiversBetRivers	+15-112	-15-112	43.5-113	43.5-110	+475	-715
BetUSBetUS	+15-105	-15-115	44-110	44-110	+500	-700
BovadaBovada	+14.5-110	-14.5-110	44-105	44-115	+475	-700
DraftKingsDK	+14.5-108	-14.5-112	43.5-112	43.5-108	+500	-700
FanDuelFD	+14.5-106	-14.5-114	43.5-112	43.5-108	+520	-750
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+15-103	-15-109	43.5-112	43.5-105	+505	-700
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+15-110	-15-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	+492	-733

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	MSU	UCLA	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-113	-7.5-107	23.5-105	23.5-115
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	22.5-118	22.5-102
FanDuelFD	+7.5-112	-7.5-108	23.5-106	23.5-114

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

MSU +14.5

UCLA -14.5

Bets54% 46%

Money51% 49%

Winner

MSU

UCLA

Bets2% 98%

Money32% 68%

Money is 30 pts ahead of bets on MSU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 14.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 15.6; 55.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IU vs MICH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	53–7	W	O50
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	BYU vs HOU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	30–18	P	O40.5
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	7–30	L	U47.5
Close	BYU vs WVU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	38–24	L	O46.5
Close	BYU vs UCF 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–21	W	O46.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	51–10	W	O40.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLLWW	4-2-1	67%	1-1	3-2
UCLA WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5
UCLA UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 741 games with totals 39.5–47.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
UCLA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MICH	L20–31WO
Nov 14	vs WASH	L7–41LU
Nov 20	vs ORE	L10–31WU

UCLA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs NEV	No meeting since 2023
Nov 7	@ MINN	L17–21LU
Nov 13	vs ILL	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSU 3–4 UCLA UCLA leads · 7 games since 1953 · UCLA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	UCLA 38 @ Michigan State 13	MSU -6.5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.6 →+0.6–#68

UCLA+2.1 →+14.7▲ 12.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MSU

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#106

Offense

UCLA better ▶

#40

#92

Defense

UCLA better ▶

#13

−0.7 #123

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+1.7 #3

64 plays #92

Pace

UCLA faster ▶

67 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	MSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #113	16.2 #20	UCLA
Yards / play	4.84 #130	4.59 #21	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.15 #2	UCLA
Success rate	44% #62	34% #9	UCLA

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #34	25.4 #82	UCLA
Yards / play	6.62 #22	5.56 #78	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.18 #57	+0.20 #114	UCLA
Success rate	46% #48	43% #95	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.9 #104	7.1 #100	11.0 #105	3.9 #116	5.6 #107	9.4 #120
UCLA allowed	3.3 #35	4.5 #24	7.8 #19	4.0 #49	4.3 #25	8.3 #29

UCLA scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	5.7 #84	9.0 #72	14.7 #76	5.8 #80	15.0 #1	20.8 #5
MSU allowed	6.3 #102	8.3 #84	14.6 #99	3.3 #34	6.6 #82	9.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.