Washington @ Michigan State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Washington

4-3 · Power #43

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #69

projected

WASH 54%

46% MSU

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

WASH -1.5

WASH 54% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLWLW	2-5	29%	2-0	—
MSU WLLWW	4-2-1	67%	3-1-1	—

Venue/role: WASH away; MSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3
MSU UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs IU	L17–31LU
Nov 28	@ ORE	L14–26LU

Michigan State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs ORE	L10–31WU
Nov 28	@ RUTG	L14–41LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WASH 1–0 MSU WASH leads · 1 game since 2023 · WASH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Washington 41 @ Michigan State 7	WASH -15	WASH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+13.7 →+5.9▼ 7.8#44

MSU+0.6 →+0.5▼ 0.1#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WASH

Longer bar = better

MSU

#69

Offense

◀ WASH better

#106

#51

Defense

◀ WASH better

#93

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

−0.7 #123

65 plays #88

Pace

Even

64 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #78	25.4 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.99 #59	5.56 #79	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.20 #114	WASH
Success rate	44% #63	43% #95	WASH

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	MSU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #113	22.7 #60	WASH
Yards / play	4.84 #130	5.29 #59	WASH
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	0.00 #32	WASH
Success rate	44% #62	40% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	4.4 #94	10.1 #50	14.6 #78	4.1 #113	9.1 #27	13.3 #69
MSU allowed	6.3 #102	8.3 #85	14.6 #99	3.3 #34	6.6 #82	9.9 #49

MSU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.9 #104	7.1 #99	11.0 #105	3.9 #116	5.6 #107	9.4 #120
WASH allowed	5.1 #81	8.0 #82	13.1 #84	4.0 #48	5.6 #53	9.6 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.