Michigan State @ Michigan: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Michigan · Conference game

Kickoff forecast61°F15 mphgusts 36DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #69

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

MSU 13%

87% MICH

Spread

MICH -16.5

Total

50.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

MSU by 4.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMICH -16.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMICH -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now50.5

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (151 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMICH -16.5

Total50.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 16.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 16.2; 55 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs COLO 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	24–14	L	U49.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	31–30	L	O49.5
Close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Close	WASH vs PUR 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	49–13	W	O51.5
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	FSU vs VT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	34–14	W	U55
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-15.5	42–21	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WLLWW	4-2-1	67%	1-1	3-2
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	2-3	1-4

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUUOU	2-5	29%	2-5
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 1520 games with totals 46.5–54.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs WASH	L7–41LU
Nov 20	vs ORE	L10–31WU
Nov 28	@ RUTG	L14–41LO

Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ ORE	L17–38LO
Nov 21	vs UCLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ OSU	L9–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MSU 38–75 MICH (5 tied) MICH leads · 118 games since 1898 · MICH has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Michigan 31 @ Michigan State 20	MICH -13.5	MSU W
Oct 26 2024	Michigan State 17 @ Michigan 24	MICH -3.5	MICH W
Oct 21 2023	Michigan 49 @ Michigan State 0	MICH -25.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+0.6 →+0.5▼ 0.1#69

MICH+14.6 →+8.8▼ 5.8#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#106

Offense

Even

#97

#93

Defense

MICH better ▶

#10

−0.7 #123

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

−0.5 #103

64 plays #92

Pace

◀ MSU faster

58 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #113	16.2 #19	MICH
Yards / play	4.84 #130	4.11 #1	MICH
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	−0.10 #6	MICH
Success rate	44% #62	35% #14	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	25.4 #82	MSU
Yards / play	5.43 #105	5.56 #79	MSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	42% #82	43% #95	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	3.9 #104	7.1 #99	11.0 #105	3.9 #116	5.6 #107	9.4 #120
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #8	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

MICH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #75
MSU allowed	6.3 #102	8.3 #85	14.6 #99	3.3 #34	6.6 #82	9.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.