Iowa @ Northwestern: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Iowa

5-1 · Power #27

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Northwestern

5-1 · Power #30

projected

IOWA 47%

53% NU

Spread

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Total

—

model 48

Model line

NU -1

NU 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
NU WWWLL	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: IOWA away; NU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
NU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Iowa

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs PUR	W20–14W
Nov 21	@ ILL	W15–13LU
Nov 27	vs NEB	W40–16WO

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ OSU	L7–31WU
Nov 21	@ MINN	W38–35LO
Nov 28	vs ILL	L13–20PU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IOWA 55–28 NU (3 tied) IOWA leads · 86 games since 1897 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Northwestern 14 @ Iowa 40	IOWA -16.5	IOWA W
Nov 4 2023	Iowa 10 @ Northwestern 7	IOWA -6	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+11.4 →+11.4–#27

NU+2.4 →+10.0▲ 7.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

IOWA

Longer bar = better

#42

Offense

NU better ▶

#21

#24

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#64

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+1.2 #7

62 plays #116

Pace

NU faster ▶

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #60	17.0 #25	NU
Yards / play	6.54 #29	5.29 #61	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	+0.08 #67	IOWA
Success rate	47% #41	44% #101	IOWA

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #41	14.5 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	6.70 #19	4.58 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #9	+0.05 #48	NU
Success rate	50% #13	36% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	11.2 #10	9.7 #56	20.8 #21	3.5 #124	6.7 #79	10.2 #107
NU allowed	1.5 #5	7.3 #74	8.8 #31	2.7 #24	5.5 #50	8.2 #27

NU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.8 #59	9.2 #67	16.0 #59	8.7 #18	8.8 #34	17.5 #21
IOWA allowed	2.8 #18	3.8 #15	6.7 #10	4.7 #67	3.2 #9	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.